The more infectious COVID is, the faster more people would have been infected.

But the progression of the disease is very well established and at least in Europe and the US the R0 is consistent.

However, social mitigations do not seem to yield consistent results. In Maryland we are hitting new highs of infections but have been social distancing for more than two weeks.

So what is the reality?

Is COVID everywhere already? But how are only 1 in six or 1 in ten testing positive for it? Why the real rush of sick people and people dying?

These two things are hard to square: The virus has been spreading quickly for months and only now are we seeing deadly consequences.