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Apr 2, 2020
2:39:30pm
superdoo Redshirt Freshman
Do my credentials need to be at least on par with techstartups.com?

First of all, I've covered why we shouldn't get our hopes up, particularly with some as of yet annectdotal and unproven rumors going on.  Concensus right now is to test.  But I will jump into Zev Zelenko's claims at the very least, because they are misleading at best if not outright false.

First of all he is claiming he has successfully treated almost 700 people with Covid-19 with only 2 hospitalizations.  So let's break down those numbers first:

700 patients in two weeks assuming a 12 hour work day means that he has seen about 50 patients a day with Covid-19.  That is a remarkable number for a single family practicioner, not only in volume per day, but also in his unique ability to test and get results back.  If we take verified cases of Covid-19 stats across the nation, about 5% of those tested are coming back positive right now.  Here are Utah's stats. So that means that he would have need to have seen 14,000 patients overall.

So he has a math problem.  But let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he batted 1.000 and found all Covid-19 patients in some time span.  Regardless, that is a HUGE volume of patients.  Typically a doc seeing 700 patients in that time frame is pedaling opioids.  The doc in "The Pharmacist" documentary on Netflix was running a pill mill and writing 1000 scripts a month.  But okay.

Even so, he is pretty premature in the game to claim success.  Patients show symptoms on average of 5-7 days and up to 14 days.  People with mild Covid-19 symptoms are taking about one totwo weeks to recover on average - those on ventilators or hospitalized are much longer.  We'll assume he didn't test any assymptomatic people.  So WAY too early to declare victory yet.

Even if everything is true up to that point, which strains credulity, his numbers are actually pretty in line with what we are seeing in Utah.  So with a small sample size, he hasn't even approached a standard deviation to claim success.

Hey, don't get me wrong, I really hope this is a cure for the virus, but a couple of docs claiming success, which is causing a run on medicines that people actually need is potentially based in false hope.  So let's test it, let's see what happens - if it works fantastic, that is a miracle.  Until then we need to carry on with what we are doing, and stop trying to be doctors on a website.

Oh, and find some more relevant sources than one unknown blog that presumably is about other things.

 

 

superdoo
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superdoo
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