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Apr 4, 2020
3:22:45pm
proudcugr 3rd String
A couple good reasons to believe India
1) It's 90 degrees in India right now. Viruses do not spread well in high temperatures. They die much faster on surfaces as well as in respiratory spread.

2) (Similar to all less developed countries) This virus is uniquely a "rich country" disease. It attacks the old and the unhealthy. Particularly those who have had life saving measures on them that have prolonged their life beyond what it would be in a less-developed country. Imagine if all the people who are already on oxygen, or already in the hospital, or have already had various life saving procedures performed on them were excluded from the US death count. The US death count would be fractions of what it is now. Those people are no longer still alive to catch this disease in many countries of the world. Our ability to extend lives is one thing that makes us so vulnerable to this unique disease right now.

Italy has a median age of 45
US is 38
India is 28.

Life expectancy in India is only 68 years compared to 79 in the US. Drop the 15% of the oldest population from our death figures and they look pretty good. (Africa is only 61 across the continent). In developing countries, if you had any of these co-morbidities, you likely are already dead and not able to even catch this disease. Those catching it in India and elsewhere are likely much less likely to even know they have it, so they don't go the hospital, don't get tested, and don't even know that it's an issue.

China on the other hand? They ARE younger then most European nations, but they also have every reason in the world to want to minimize the perceived impact.
proudcugr
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proudcugr
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