I think among low risk groups for severe consequences we will have long-since achieved herd immunity by this upcoming Fall (we may already be there in some places...but anti-body testing is still in early phases so we don't really know how widespread this is among those at risk for infection). The groups that have been kept in full quarantine (i.e. rest homes, self imposed) would be the most susceptible to the second wave and that group should be encouraged to self-select out of such activities until a vaccine is in place, but it's not clear to me that extreme measures are either necessary or advisable for low risk groups. I guess it will come down to how influential the 55-80 group is by that time and how long the public will continue to be swayed by anecdotes and fuzzy projections.

Even if my guesstimate is wrong and we're a long way from herd immunity in any group by the fall, I think public opinion will have been swayed by then to believe that the government mandated cure is worse than the disease and many will push for more targeted measures. We've been using a machete where a scalple could have done just fine, which worked when we had so little data and scary projections were floating around. However, when we have more and more reliable data about who has already had the disease, who is susceptible to get it when exposed, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates, etc., then many of these measures are going to be a tough sell except among the most vulnerable groups.