as we have seen in this market, literally anything can happen. We're seeing pretty crazy stuff. Complete divorce from fundamentals.

What you can do though is take a look at asymmetries in risk positioning. What you are looking for, is an opportunity, if you make the wager/investment it pays off 4-8x, and you can only lose 1-2x. Has nothing to do with odds. Unknowable odds more than usual. If something does happen, it’s really consequential vs. if it doesn’t happen it doesn’t really matter too much. Hard to find those today.

I would say if you are doing total market here, your downside risk is substantial. I would also say that the upside, if it ever has anything to do with earnings ever again (I think it will eventually) is pretty low at today's prices.

There are some decent deals though, I would just be wary of total market. I don't think this is fear mongering. It's just being rational.