The CFP will never let a non-P5 team in unless it is completely ridiculous to bypass them. This is 99% about money, and the real power broker in college football is the CFP committee.

"completely ridiculous to bypass them" The only real chance for a non-power5 team to get in is BYU. The CFP committee will always claim the a AAC/MWC schedule is a G5 schedule, and thus not on the level of their "powerful" P5 league schedules. A wind here and there against a P5 team for the AAC/MWC will never be viewed as enough. "Sure, they can beat the one P5 team on their schedule this year, but if they had to play a mighty P5 team every week, they'd falter..."

But...BYU, because of their independence, can schedule an equivalent P5 schedule. If BYU were to finish this year unbeaten, including a NY6 bowl win against a P5, and then go undefeated next year against the current schedule, the CFP would have egg all over their face if they did not invite BYU to the party. Their hand would be forced. But that is what it'll take, and BYU really has the only chance among non P5 teams to get in.