They have 2 games left: @UNC and Georgia Tech. Win those 2 and they finish 9-1 with their only loss being against Clemson.

Their odds of making the ACC championship game are close to zero, as Clemson or Notre Dame would have to lose 2 games (since they hold the tie breakers against Miami). Clemson only has 1 scheduled game left (Virginia Tech), and Notre Dame has 2 (Syracuse and Wake Forest).

If both Clemson and Notre Dame make the CFP, then Miami becomes the ACC Orange Bowl invite, regardless of whether they are in the top 12 as long as they are the next highest ranked ACC team. And with UNC’s loss to ND yesterday, that is almost assured now.

In any case, even if Notre Dame were to beat Clemson a second time in the ACC championship game and Clemson were to fall out of the top 4, a 1-loss Miami is going to be Top 10 (at minimum) and will qualify for a NY6. There are no limits to how many NY6 teams can come from 1 conference, so 3 from the ACC isn’t a problem.

But Miami still has an outside shot at a playoff spot. It would take some doing, but they could do it. ND would need to beat Clemson, Alabama would need to beat Florida, and Ohio State would need to not be eligible for the Big 10 championship game (or lose that game).

In that case, Miami would be competing with Ohio State, A&M, and Cincinnati for the playoff spots. Right now, Miami doesn’t really have a signature win. Their best win would be against a 4-loss UNC team or a 3/4 loss NC State team. So an extra win against BYU could be a big boost for them.