Agree that it could go any number of ways and no one knows for sure. That being said, here are my thoughts:

Pepperdine beat a bad San Diego team by 6. Hurts their strength of schedule

Saint Mary’s lost to BYU by 14. Spread was 9. Helps their SOS but game not close

LMU lost to Gonzaga but beat the spread significantly. Definitely helps SOS

Prior to their games yesterday the adjusted conference winning percentages were very close for these three teams.

Saint Mary’s: 0.590
Pepperdine: 0.575
LMU: 0.559

Obviously, no one knows the formula but based on teams played yesterday and how they performed, and based on how close the adjusted conference winning percentages were, I think LMU makes the leap