decades of backpacking, camping and winter camping. I started to think, not once have I ever got my sleeping bag wet. Winter, summer thunder storms, fall and spring sleet, snow and rain, etc. never ended up with a wet sleeping bag.
Even one November in the Escalante between the stretch where the Moody canyons and 25 mile enter the Escalante, and constantly crossing the river, and once I hit quicksand, lost my balance and went down in the water. Sleeping bag still didn't get wet.
I switched to down, and it was the best thing I did. I wished I'd done it sooner. The weight and how small down can compresse is so wonderful.