Back then media market size was the number one factor driving conference realignment. That's why we say saw Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland to the Big 10, Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC, Missouri and Texas A&M to the SEC, and Utah and Colorado to the PAC. Each one of those moves expanded its respective conference's geographical footprint and delivered media markets that would (in theory) mean more television money for each school.

In 2021 things are much different. With all the cord cutting media market size is still important but much less so. I don't think you'd see Rutgers to the BIG 10 or Missouri to the SEC in 2021. Neither one of those schools really drive significant viewership beyond their local footprint. Think about it, when was the last time you got excited to watch Rutgers or Mizzou play football?

Name recognition, brand, online/social media presence, large alumni (boo$ter) population, and competitiveness in football--and to a much lesser extent basketball--are all more important now. Of the 130 FBS schools, there are roughly 20 that meet this new criteria (in no particular order):

Washington
Oregon
USC
UCLA
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Clemson
Florida State

These schools are the new drivers of conference realignment. If OU and Texas wanted in the PAC or BIG 10, they probably would have received an invite. They are such valuable brands that they could pick and choose which conference to be affiliated with. Hypothetically, If Georgia wanted to jump to the ACC, they'd probably get an invite, or if Penn state wanted in the ACC, they'd be in. However, if NC State wanted to jump to the SEC, the SEC would politely decline. I don't think that would have been the case 10 years ago. In 2010 the SEC would have probably jumped at the chance to expand into NC and it's major media markets, but in 2021 it makes little sense.

I predict the remaining P5 and G5 will generally remain in their respective conferences. I don't see any of the Big 12 leftovers going anywhere. Even though they would theoretically deliver new markets for the ACC, BIG 10 and PAC 12, they just don't move the needle in 2021 for any one of those conferences. Besides, the geographic distance and associated travel costs would be a concern for many schools. Do you think Washington would be thrilled to pay for their teams to travel all the way to Waco to play Baylor? There's also the problem of academic snobbery and bigotry, particularly within the PAC and BIG, that those Big 12 leftovers would have to overcome. I think the Big 12 will invite schools to replace OU and Texas (i.e. BYU and/or AAC schools) but that's it.

Given the current football landscape here are my predictions of where BYU will be after the latest round of conference realignment is finished:

1. I think the most likely scenario is that BYU will continue marching forward with football independence. I think the Big 12 quickly invites 2-4 AAC schools to stabilize the conference and BYU is left out again. It would suck, but I can see this scenario quickly playing out.

2. BYU is invited to the Big 12 along with another AAC school, most likely Cincinnati. I wouldn't count out Boise State though, BYU and the Big 12 may want a travel partner out West and Boise would fit the bill. I could see BYU, Boise, Cincy and Houston. Again, this scenario would be unlikely but possible IMO.

3. The PAC-12 expands and invites BYU. Very unlikely, but there's a universe that exists where the PAC presidents and AD's are so disgusted with the mishandling of the PAC-12 Network and with the $100 million wasted on rent alone, that BYU approaches them and uses BYUTV's infrastructure as a bargaining chip. In other words, BYU could use BYUTV's infrastructure to stream and broadcast PAC content at a fraction of the cost that they've been paying.
BYUTV along with all the other positives BYU brings to the table, might just be enough to overlook Sunday play and move the needle just enough for the PAC presidents to hold their noses and invite us. That said, there's a Lloyd Christmas chance of this scenario actually playing out.