In a conference we have to be one of the top 6 conference champions. So let's go ahead and give one of those spots to each of the SEC, Big 10 and ACC. We'll even concede a spot to the PAC12. So their are potentially only 2 conferences existing out of the MWC, remnants of the Big12 and the AAC. If we win one of those conferences, we're pretty much in.

Even if it stays at 3 conferences, odds are very favorable. This is like asking what's harder, a top 10 rank or a MWC championship...and somehow arguing that the MWC title is less likely.