Full disclosure: I went into this looking for playoff odds from 538, anticipating that we need to slow our roll and take a more realistic view on a playoff invite. Even if we win out, I can't see BYU getting a playoff spot this year unless there is 1984 levels of chaos.  I'm hoping for an NY6 and would be incredibly excited to have that as the result of the season.  

That said, 538 doesn't have their playoff odds out yet and the link was to ESPN FPI.  And, like I said, I may be late to the party, but why are we so low there?

0.0% chance to make the playoff is harsh, but probably realistic
1.6% chance to win out seems a bit low, but I can even deal with that
But why on earth are we ranked #53 by FPI?

I'm really confounded.  Arizona St is #44 (which seems maybe a touch low, but fair), and Utah is #49 (probably about right tbh).  But we beat both of those teams...so how are we 53!?!?

We've admittedlty also played two very weak teams in USF (#105) and Arizona (#107), but that shouldn't be enough to put us that low.  After all, Utah's only FBS win is #97 Washington St (so in the same range).  Coastal Carolina has beat #116 (Kansas), #82 (Buffalo), #127 (UMass) and an FCS team (Citadel), so clearly weaker than our victories against #44, #49, #105 and #107.  But Coastal Carolina is #34, and we're #53.

And that's before we even look at teams like Nebraska, who FPI somehow ranks #26 despite being 2-3 with losses to Illinois, Oklahoma and Michigan St.  Two of those teams are admittedly pretty good, but the only teams Nebraska has actually beat are #83 Bufffalo and FCS Fordham.  The real mind-bender is that Nebraska lost last week in OT to Michigan St.  And as a result both Michigan St and Nebraska moved up in the ranks.  

I find myself very curious about how FPI is calculated, especially since we on this board seem to put a lot of weight on FPI predictions.