Right now 40% of BYU's recruits come from the LDS Arizona/Utah/Idaho corridor

That number is less than 25% for Utah. Kids in Texas or in California generally aren't between BYU and Utah as their finalists or deciding on Utah based on their record against BYU. Could obviously be a small hit if BYU stays on the upswing, but I don't think beating BYU is the primary key to Utah's success.

Losing to BYU repeatedly might hurt them, but not playing the game isn't going to hurt either as it's just not a huge factor to most non-local recruits