if they rank us in the 15-20 range (after a win against Virginia this week) then there is a decent shot (if we win out to end in the top 12, but we would still need some help/luck)

if we lose to Virginia, then it won't matter, alternatively if we beat virginia and we are 20-25, i doubt we get far enough inside the top 12 by seasons end

If Cincinnatti gets into the playoff that actually helps our chances as it will free up the G5 NY6 slot to be an at large bid. There are 3 at large spots this year (4 if the G5 champ makes the playoffs) 3/4 slots are the peach and fiesta bowls.

BYU would have to be in the top 12 to get a spot and depending on how the playoff shakes up and the second place teams in the P5 conferences (that have a playoff team), only way they could guarantee a spot is being #9 I believe (which is out of reach with 2 losses IMO) Depending on how other teams end up though there is an outside chance they could sneak into that #12 ranking with 6 P5 wins. Very unlikely but "possible"




TLDR; IMO there is less than 10-15% of us not playing in the Independence Bowl (first we would have to win out, which will not be easy, and then we will have to have a bunch of other teams eat each other up)