Houston only makes the NY6 if they win the CCG over Cincy. That cuts our openings down by one (since Houston gets in), plus allocates the openings in a less helpful way. There's only 3 non-CFP NY6 openings (since PAC, SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big 10 champs - or replacements - get 5 of the 8).

If we add Houston and Cincy (not a playoff team if they lose to Houston) that leaves only one spot. And we're not passing Notre Dame

I know you well enough to know you think things through so what am I missing here