Teams that will be ahead of BYU regardless of any future results (* indicates no more games):

Georgia
Alabama
Cincy
Michigan
Ohio St*
Notre Dame*
Ole Miss*
Michigan St*
ACC Champ
PAC12 Champ

So that's 10 teams that are absolutely 100% ahead of BYU.  The only way we get an NY6 at this point is for us to pass two of Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Baylor.  If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, they honestly probably don't drop below us, but if it's REALLY ugly, then maybe.  And then we'd need Baylor to lose ugly to Oklahoma St as well in the CCG.  (If Oklahoma wins tonight then Baylor doesn't have any games left to drop behind us and they and the Big 12 champ will guarantee we're out)

The concern then is that Oklahoma St would be a 1 loss team ending with two high-profile wins, so a real shot to make  the playoff, which then puts either Oklahoma or Baylor in over us as the Big 12 rep.  To avoid that, we then need Alabama to beat Georgia, so that both make the playoff, along with Michigan and (hopefully) Cincinnati or Notre Dame over OK St, though I think OK St would definitely pass Notre Dame with the conference championship.  And then we still need to make sure that the Big 10 or G5 doesn't get a bid thief

Long story short - we're rooting for specific results in 6 consecutive games (BYU v USC, Okla St v Oklahoma, Okla St v Baylor, Alabama v Georgia, Cincy v Houston, Michigan v Iowa) with zero margin for error AND if all that goes exactly as we hope, then we still have to hope the committee has suddenly become big fans of Cincy.