That a kid could be pretty universally regarded as the next big thing coming out of HS, that Ohio State coaches (who have their pick of near anyone) would give him a schollie, and that the guy 3 years later can’t get reps at UNLV and washes out.

Recruiting seems to be one of those things that is really hard to predict at the individual level, even though the law of large numbers takes over when you look bigger picture (meaning, it’s anyone’s guess how any particular 4/5 star guy ultimately does, but the school that consistently brings in the most 4/5 star guys is usually gonna be the best).