years so they have been playing more P5 programs each season than Utah and/or TCU did when moving into a P5 league.

In fact, since BYU went independent in 2011 they have played on average 5 P5 programs each season (excluding 2020 it's been as few as 3 in 2014 and as many as 7 in 2021). Of the 49 P5 games they have played they have a record of 23-26. They also have 7 games against UCF/Cincinnati/Houston (not counting bowl games) with a record of 6-1 in those games so if you add those it's a record of 29-27. And if you add Boise St. which has typically been our top G5 game each year and is about as close to a P5 game as you can get without being a P5 game we have a record of 4-6 against them and we have 65 games over 10 seasons (excluding 2020) for 6.5 "P5-equivalent" games per season with a record of 32-33 (.492) during that span.

Extrapolate that to a Big 12 schedule and I'm assuming with a 9-game schedule and one additional "P5-level" game in OOC that our baseline expectation for BYU would be somewhere in the vicinity of 7-5 (with a 4-5 or 5-4 record in conference). In other words, finishing bowl eligible and in the top half of the conference would be seen as a base expectation entering the Big 12.


***The one caveat to that expectation is that it is based on BYU's performance from 2011-2021, and for the majority of that timespan there are many that feel like BYU underachieved. If you are like a number of people who feel like BYU has turned a corner under Kalani, then maybe you would think that a 7-5 record in the Big 12 would be underachieving and that we should be able to expect 8-9 wins from him consistently. But I would caution that setting expectations much higher than that may be setting yourself up for disappointment. At the end of the day, 8-win seasons in the Big 12 would be very comparable to 10-win seasons in the MWC.