When it comes to money distributions there is no question losing Texas and OU hurts the conference in the short run. However, I think there is tremendous upside for the conference in the future. Here is why:

1. Houston and UCF are in states where HS football is huge and talent is everywhere. If either both or one of those schools gets on a run and can get into the Playoff every 2-3 years then the prestige of said schools will improve with instate recruits. Adding to that is both likely will be able to compete just fine in the NIL world. If you are a recruit and can get good NIL money, you probably want to attend a school that makes the playoff. Depending on whether the playoff expands, as long as Bama and GA have their dominance, OU, Florida, Texas, A&M may have a harder time making playoffs.

2. If UCF and Houston have success then the fan bases expand. Just like Utah’s fan base grew with its success, so will the fan bases of UCF and Houston. That could eat into the fan bases of SEC schools in Texas and Florida. Add to that is the fact that UCF has enrollment of 70K and Houston has one of 45K (mostly locals). That means the alumni and fan bases keep growing. The seed is definitely there for strong local followings that could easily surpass that of Texas and OU in 20-25 years. Again, this is dependent on UCF and Houston doing well. If OU pulls a Nebraska when it goes to the SEC, its relevance could suffer a similar fate. Of course, this all depends on UCF and Houston doing well and being a credible choice to follow in their respective markets.

3. The Big 12 schools have very passionate fan bases. Attendance numbers show this and it just is the nature of the culture in its territory. If streaming becomes the way of the future and cable declines, then large media markets with cable reach become less important. Fan bases and alumni become the target if access can be found anytime in any place and become prime targets.

4. Cincinnati brings with it recent success and a good recruiting territory of its own. Its recruiting classes get better and better. If Fickell stays there the Bearcats could keep having success which could present the opportunity to grab Ohio State players that enter the transfer portal. As time goes by, Cincy could become more and more of a player in the midwest.

5. The more high profile the Big 12 becomes with success, the more likely BYU lands the best LDS recruits in the country. BYU success adds to the conference’s perception.

In the next 10-15 years I could easily see the Big 12 becoming the 3rd highest paid conference. The building blocks are there and the same adage we had for independence still applies to BYU and now applies to the Big 12: just win baby win.