This assumes out of the four new additions two will have 5 home games and two will have 4 home games. That should be a valid assumption because half of the existing 10 teams would continue to have 5 home games and half 4 home games. It is logical the four new comers would be split as well.

Now to deduce that BYU will have 5 home games lets look at the schedules of the other 3.

Cincy is slated to host Eastern Kentucky and Miami Ohio. It has road games at Pitt and at NCST. The date for the NCST game is TBA which makes me think it gets dropped or moved. If Cincy keeps its two home games then that means it will likely only have four Big 12 home games. BTW, Cincy only has two non conference games in 2024. One at home against Pitt and one at Miami Ohio. If they have four Big 12 home games in 2023 they would get 5 in 2025 which means that third game in 2024 could be a road game.

Houston has 3 non conference games. Two home games against UTSA and Sam Houston. One road game at Rice. Pretty self explanatory. Like Cincy they would likely get 4 Big 12 home games and 5 road ones.

UCF only has two. One at home against Kent State and one at Boise St. There is flexibility here for them to add a road game or a home game. If Houston and Cincy keep their two non conference home games then by default UCF should get 5 Big 12 home games. That leaves BYU as the second team to get 5 Big 12 home games.

Given all the above, BYU needs a 3rd game in 2023 and needs to drop games from 2024. I strongly suspect that 3rd game will be a road game if we have 5 Big 12 home games. That leads me to conclude Cincy and BYU will switch their NCST games. It saves Cincy cancellation fees and drops a game from the 2024 slate for BYU. Since the Cincy NCST game has no date for 2023 it could fit anywhere in October and November for BYU and NCST based on how conference schedules pan out. Yes 2023 would be a tough slate for BYU but the Big 12 may give BYU more manageable Big 12 games in 2023 to compensate.