In my decades of experience in high level policy and reporting of it in the media I have developed an approach that assumes everyone is reporting what they believe to be accurate through the lens of their individual perspective/viewpoint and personal bias. That fact that some are more professional than others (i.e. personal attacks) notwithstanding.

I read these conflicting stories and try to find a reality that doesn’t contradict any one viewpoint. I’m not there yet, but here’s where I’m at:

Of course, this is about money. We don’t know the dollar values, and frankly neither do the A.D.’s. they have projections. But that is just the first part of the equation. The decision is based on a fraction of the projection and that analysis is different for each school.

Here’s the equation. (The projection) X (the probability the conference implodes) X (the probability that you have no P5 options if the conference implodes). To summarize:

Projection x Implosion x Homelessness = True Value of PAC10 membership

That’s different for every school in the PAC 10.

For the teams that are most likely to get into the Big 10 or SEC: Oregon, Washington, Stanford? The projection is the floor. It only goes up from there. So their goal is to be in the driver’s seat keep all the options on the table and they can do that as long as the PAC 10 is unified and stable.

But for a school like Arizona, if the PAC10 projection is already lower than the BIG12, and then you multiply that by the probability of ANY OTHER TEAM jumping ship (implosion). Then you have to multiply that by the probability of them being homeless when that happens. That might be remote, but it is possible.

For example, what happens if the B1G and SEC look to the ACC in their expansion? At that point the BIG12 has a bunch more choices to make. Arizona is in is a dogfight with fellow PAC 12 schools (Utah and CO) as well as leftover ACC schools like Georgia Tech, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Va Tech, and VA, Louisville. The BIG12 might take 2 from the West and 2 from the East? And maybe this is why the Big12 is not in a huge hurry either. For all the rumbling in the West, I think the next action is more likely in the East. And that’s really complicated for schools like Arizona.

Even if that probability is small, when you factor it into the equation you have already discounted the projected TV contract substantially. So YES if Arizona can get into the Big 12 right now today – you go.

In fairness, they are also applying the same math in the other direction. What is the projection of the Big12 tv deal, what is the probability that the Big 12 implodes (way less than the PAC 12) and what is the chance you end up homeless at that point (probably about the same)?

The bottom line is this. Even if the Big12 projection is only slightly better than the PAC10 projection in actual dollars, the probability analysis enhances the differential dramatically for some schools.

The interesting question is whether the PAC10 implosion will be driven by invitations by the B1G or the SEC? or defections by the schools with the highest probability of being homeless? Washington St. Oregon St have the highest of those probabilities. But right now, they have no place to go. AZ, AZ St, CO, and UT are not at as much risk of Homelessness, but there is risk, and there is a place they can go right now (before any dominos start falling in the East – you can bet if the B1G gets a sweetheart deal and say Notre Dame, the SEC is going to respond!)

Regardless, it’s not surprising that a reporter with a connection to Oregon might be hearing entirely different things from “high level sources” than a reporter affiliated with Arizona. And if a reporter connected to AZ St. is singing a different tune from AZ, that could just be a reflection of AZ St.’s analysis of the risks. Afterall, Phoenix is a pretty big market to end up homeless, but Tucson? There’s no reason to criticize any of the reporters or attack them personally.

Nonetheless, I think the chances that the PAC10 stabilizes and remains unified are closer to 0% than 100% and that one factor creates enough uncertainty to ensure that this domino show is not over.