USF - 65% chance of BYU winning
A bad USF team gave us more than we expected last year, and there are signs they could be improved. We should win, but this is not a gimme.

Baylor - 45%
Having this game at home makes it close to a toss-up. Baylor is stronger on paper, but we should have a legitimate shot at an upset.

Oregon - 30%
On the road against a top 30ish P5 team - would be a huge win if we pull it off, but this has to be penciled in as a likely 'L', IMO.

Wyoming - 75%
I would make this one higher except Wyoming has an underrated coach and they'll see this as a huge rivalry game. We'll get their best shot.

Utah State - 60%
This game isn't getting enough attention. USU should be contending for the MWC title again and they can beat us if they get a few good bounces.

Notre Dame - 35%
ND is extremely strong on paper. We'll see how things go with the new coach, but this will be at least our second-toughest game, IMO. The only advantage we have is playing close to home, while ND has to travel across two time zones.

Arkansas - 50%
I suspect Arkansas is due for a regression this year, and teams from the southeast don't generally do well in Provo. That said, it's still a very talented roster and 50-50 against a good SEC team is about as optimistic as I can talk myself into being.

Liberty - 65%
I feel the same about this game as I do USF. If we're healthy and play a clean game we should win, but it's not a gimme.

East Carolina - 85%
A so-so team making a long trip to Provo on a short week (right after playing UCF). Have to expect to win this one comfortably.

Boise State - 55%
I think Boise will have another below-average year by their standards, but it will still take a solid performance to beat them on the road.

Utah Tech - 99%
Glorified bye week.

Stanford - 65%
Assuming Stanford doesn't have a major turnaround this year, we should be able to beat them in front of a (hopefully) large BYU bay area crowd.