Since the start of the 2021 season:

The BYU defense has a floor of giving up 17 pts to FBS schools. The only lower scores in this period are 16 to Zona (so 1 whole pt off), and 14 to Idaho State, 3 whole pts off. IOW, don't count on the defense holding USU to any fewer than 17 pts.


If the defensive best is 17 pts, that means BYU needs to score 42 to cover a 24 pt spread (41.5 is an impossible score, so it must be 42. 41 is a push). BYU has scored 42+ points only 3 times in this time period. One of those was Idaho State, and one of those was that absolutely horrid UVA defense last year. USU has a better defense than that.


USU has actually been beaten by 24+ twice already this season, but only twice all of last season. It's not out of the realm of possibility that they would suffer another 24+ point beat down, but given BYU's recent defensive and offensive history, the odds of BYU covering a 24 pt spread against an FBS school appear very small.