things have broken down on a year-to-year basis based on start time:

2019:
2-2 in later games
5-3 in earlier games

A couple of bad losses in earlier games (at Toledo, at USF) but also 2 of our biggest wins of the year (USC, at Tennessee)

2020:
8-0 in later games (mostly bad teams)
2-1 in earlier games. The one loss was to a very good Coastal Carolina team on a short prep week with a cross country road trip.

2021:
7-0 in later games
3-2 in early games.
The 2 losses were Boise and Baylor. Not a great stretch but both tough matchups.


2022:
4-0 in later time
0-1 in earlier time.
1 game on the road against a top 15 team is not a fair sample size.

Yes, our record is better in night games, but most our losses in afternoon games are on the road or against tough teams (or both).

If we look at just P5 programs:

5-1 in late time slots (4-1 v. the PAC-12)
3-2 in earlier time slots (2-1 v. the PAC-12)

Those 3 losses?
2019 Utah (11-3)
2019 Washington (8-5)
2021 Baylor (12-2)

I'm not saying we are going to beat Notre Dame. I'm not saying we are going to lose. I'm just saying that our better record in late games is largely contributed to the quality of opponents we have played in that slot. It's a case where correlation does not necessarily mean causation.