to develop rather than recruit an average grad transfer with 1 year to play that isn't that good.

I totally get that it is hard to predict which players will turn out but that doesn't mean it isn't a miss. It's the coaches jobs to evaluate players and recruit the best ones. They won't be perfect - that's why it is a "miss" when they don't recruit a guy that turns out very good.

Just like it is a "miss" in the NBA draft when teams pass on players that turn out to be very good.