The change in transfer rules is going to have big effect for a long time

But if this is first full, "normal" year that anybody with eligibility is able to transfer without penalty, I'd expect this year to not be the "new normal." Mix in the extra-eligibility from Covid and you have an unusually large number of players who have eligibility and who have never transferred.

Next year, for instance, none of the kids who transfer this year will have a "free transfer" left. USC took advantage of transfers already, so I guess this has been possible at least before this season. Still, feels like a wave/bulge is working its way through.

Also, a lot of transfers are going to learn that it doesn't always end well. I expect it to be different than before, but not like this year, going forward.