For example, losing to Alabama in a bowl is not the same as losing to Texas St. And beating Texas St certainly doesn't mean you would have beat Alabama.

But this analysis treats them as the same. If a team is continually getting sent to bowl games against bad teams and beating them, it (generally) means that the perception of that team is worse than their performance. On the other side, if you're constantly getting sent to high-end bowl games and being matched up against opponents who are simply better, it probably means that the perception of the team is too high.

It doesn't mean though that the team losing to Alabama, Ohio St and Clemson is bad or that they're worse than the team who repeatedly beats Kent St, Western Michigan and Troy.