• Slovis is again a Heisman candidate
• Robbins is a thousand yard rusher against teams that aren't North Texas
• Epps stays healthy, Hill breaks out, and Roberts is a consistent contributor
• the incoming class is ready to contribute quickly
• and the defensive players all takes steps under Jay Hill's tutelage? 

• Slovis is bad enough that Pitt was happy to move on from him
• Retzlaff/Fennegan are overmatched at the P5 level
• Robbins was a mirage against weak competition
• Epps is hurt, Roberts was a one- (or two-) game wonder and Hill doesn't take another step
• the incoming class are freshmen
• and Jay Hill's defense struggles without the right players/experience

Then BYU won't be going to a bowl game - or even be that close

There's always variability, but this year has a LOT even by normal standards