and not in a "miracles happen", "any given Sunday" way, but in a perfectly reasonable logical outcome

It's an oversimplification, but we've got two likely wins and then ten consecutive coin flips (or near coin flips)

Could all ten come up heads to have us 12-0? Sure, not likely but possible
Could all ten come up tails and we finish 2-10? I certainly hope not, but it's also possible

Most likely case is we finish 7-5 or so...but there's so much variability in the team for 2023. If the team is a bit better and turns those coin flips (on average) into 60% it's huge. If we're a bit worse than expected, it's horrible.

Everything is balanced in a knife's edge