I think BYU will do better than expected in the Big12, here's why:
Premise #1: BYU athletes/teams are overachievers
BYU Football's story is about success against the odds. In general, our teams overachieve. Take the gap between recruiting rankings and outcomes, or coaching salaries vs. averages. Most seasons, the team has a few really talented players with NFL potential, and just enough solid, smart, hard working athletes to fill out a starting roster. Too many injuries, and we crash.
Premise #2: Last few years have seen great investment and an increase in talent
Especially after the 2018 rebuild, coaching salaries have gone up, recruiting has improved. The increase #'s in the NFL recently is one sign. But even though we've lost a few transfers, missed a few recruits - I don't know how long it's been since we've had such a strong 'Two-deep' in so many positions. Defensive line might be our weakest spot depending on what happens with a few transfer targets.
Add #1+#2 and it could = better results than we've ever seen. Of course, we've never faced the kind of schedule we'll see next year, it's not totally new. But if we keep getting better recruits after this very good transfer class, I think we'll get to the top half of the Big 12 within a few years.
I know about blue goggles, and you never know if a team is good until they play. But I'm with those who say next year we'll be 7-5, and maybe win a bowl game.