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Feb 17, 2024
6:48:12pm
krindorr Playmaker
Predicting the 2024 BYU season (based on current SP+ ratings)

Connelly just put out his SP+ ratings, rating BYU as the #65 FBS team with an SP-rating of -2.2.

Opponents are as follows

Opponent SP+ Rank / Rating SP+ Win Probability
Southern Illinois N/A (FCS) 88.4% (generic FCS placeholder, may not be super accurate)
@ SMU #27 / 9.9 19.5%
@ Wyoming #80 / -5.4 51.6%
Kansas St #18 / 14.4 20.3%
@ Baylor #71 / -3.1 46.3%
Arizona #19 /14.4 20.3%
Oklahoma St #10 / 13.1 22.6%
@ UCF #59 / -0.6 40.5%
@ Utah #17 / 16.4 10.7%
Kansas #35 / 8.0 32.5%
@Arizona St #82 / -6 53.0%
Houston #78 / -5.1 62.5%

Based on this, we're favored in 4 games (Southern Illinois, @Wyoming, @ASU, Houston), but given the probabilities, the most likley outcome is ... 4.73 wins.  Which explains why FanDuel put the O/U at 4.5.

Arbitrarily bumping the FCS win % up to 90% (could be higher, but I refuse to believe we're less likely to beat Utah than we are to lose to S Illinois and the FCS data is weak so I made that choice) and simulating the season ten million times with these win percentages gives the following results

8e190f860e33ea16b4061b302785bd69.png

For more detail, do note the below numbers - the chart shows the possibility of 12-0 as 0%, but that's due to rounding.  There were actually 21 simulations (of the 10 million) that ended up that way... so twice as good as Lloyd Christmas' one in a million chance

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But (without inserting any of my biases on how good I think teams are and going simply by SP+), I can see where FanDuel came up with 4.5.  By his SP+ numbers 45.6% of the time BYU wins 4 or fewer. and 54.4% of the time they get 5+ wins.  29.2% of the time, BYU ends up bowl-eligible.

 

Note that this simulation is not dynamic.  In reality, if we win or lose in a given week, it will influence how good SP+ thinks we are and change our odds for future weeks.  This analysis assumes that the preseason predictions are more or less accurate (otherwise I'd have to sim EVERY team's seasons to see how they all change as well)

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Feb 17, 2024 at 6:48:12pm
Message modified by krindorr on Feb 18, 2024 at 2:18:35am
Message modified by krindorr on Feb 18, 2024 at 2:38:38am
krindorr
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krindorr
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Related Threads Topic: Blog: Oddsmakers Don't Expect BYU Back in a Bowl Game in 2024 ([Cougs Daily], Feb 16, 2024 at 8:00am)

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