Maybe, but it probably accelerated it and locked it in at one, instead of two

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Apr 30, 2024
3:10:28pm

Gustav Intervention Needed

Maybe, but it probably accelerated it and locked it in at one, instead of two

No gradual decline, just straight to one kid and now likely stuck there forever.

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Gustav

Previous username: gustav88
Bio page: Gustav
Joined: Sep 8, 2010
Last login: May 21, 2024
Total posts: 49,806 (8,413 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

One other interesting outcome of the impact of having less children

TNT

Apr 30, 2:53pm

Talk to Japan & Italy about that. Low birth rates threaten their economies.

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 2:55pm

China is nearing a tipping point on the 1 child policy. It'll be 3-4 years and we'll see bad effects there.

Tokolosh

Apr 30, 2:55pm

The folly of the 1 child mandate is a real problem for China. Myopic political

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 2:57pm

The irony is that the policy was unnecessary. They scrapped it years ago, but

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 2:59pm

Once it changed the culture, the policy itself was probably irrelevant

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:03pm

I don’t even think it did that. China is just like everyone else now. It didn’t

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:05pm

Maybe, but it probably accelerated it and locked it in at one, instead of two

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:10pm

It accelerated it, but China’s fertility rate was never 1.0. Today it’s 1.7

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:28pm

Interesting, that's higher than I thought

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:29pm

Some claim it’s actually much worse than 1.4. China has a big problem

BR549

Apr 30, 7:23pm

Sure, but so do many other countries that never had a 1-child policy. For

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 7:37pm

Cuturally, it used to be good to have large families in China. Once the culture

Parker Schnabel

Apr 30, 3:18pm

Yep as my BYU econ professor taught: children are an economic cost in the

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 3:26pm

Taiwan’s fertility rate today is 1.2, lower than China’s at 1.7 (or 1.45 per the

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:30pm

Right, it is nuanced. In 1970, the fertility rate was 6.3 The one-child policy

Parker Schnabel

Apr 30, 3:48pm

Already seeing them. Demographics is a big factor in their RE crisis.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 2:59pm

Grandkids in China or grandkids here? There are still tons of people wanting to

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:02pm

Here. Immigration won't save us.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:05pm

And as far as feeling the effects, we already are starting to.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:13pm

Well, I don't know about save, but the housing shortage here is so bad I have

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:14pm

Housing shortages are localized and exaggerated.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:21pm

Immigration FTW.

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 2:57pm

Immigration, births, robots. Go firing on all cylinders.

Genghis Spreads

Apr 30, 2:58pm

"More and more people" sounds like a Ponzi scheme.

Apr 30, 2:57pm

For years and years, it was "overpopulation will kill us!", now it's "uh oh"

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:00pm

Based on the data from each time period is this really a surprise?

Apr 30, 3:11pm

Russia also has a negative birth rate. That’s fueling Putins push for more

Apr 30, 3:01pm

I'd be happy to give putin something he can do.

S-rizzle

Apr 30, 3:08pm

Putins response to neg birth rate is to get Russians killed in a protracted war.

Ycrazy

Apr 30, 3:18pm

Apparently starting a war is an excellent way to increase the population

CaliWG

Apr 30, 4:03pm

There can be an increase in births after a war... but Russia will most likely

Apr 30, 5:40pm

*fewer

gangbusters

Apr 30, 3:04pm

Oh....hahahahahaha. Very funny. Ignore feature engaged!

TNT

Apr 30, 3:37pm

oe "lesser."

85fan

Apr 30, 4:23pm

We had a glimpse of that when trying to get people back to work during COVID

thewaterboy

Apr 30, 3:10pm

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