Utah

Clear Starters (10):

• Marcus Williams (FS, Baltimore): One of the better safeties in the NFL, in the 3rd year of a 5 year/$70M deal.  Has missed a few games each of the last two seasons and the cap hits are going up, so safe for this year, but a possible cap hit after next season
• Jaylon Johnson (CB, Chicago): Had a breakout season and is now considered one of the top young CBs in the NFL, including just signing a 4 yr/$76M deal
• Garrett Bolles (OT, Denver): After a rough start to his career, Bolles has turned into a solid blind-side protector and the clear starter there for the Broncos
• Julian Blackmon (S, Indianapolis): The clear starter for the Colts, they thought highly enough of him to bring him back on a $3.7M deal... but not highly enough to give him a multi-year deal.  He's the clear starter...but needs to show well to keep that role in future seasons
• Matt Gay (K, Indianapolis): Considered one of the better kickers in the league at this point
• Cody Barton (LB, Denver): After many good years in Seattle, he was just OK last year in Washington DC.  But he found a spot with the Broncos as the 2nd ILB in a 3-4 base defense so should get plenty of opportunity
• Mitch Wishnowsky (P, San Francisco): He's a punter.  Pretty good at what he does
• Devin Lloyd (LB, Jacksonville): After disappointing at the end of his rookie year, he established himself as an every-down LB in his sophomore year, playing 97% of the snaps
• Zack Moss (RB, Denver): After a disappointing start in Buffalo, Moss found success replacing an injured Jonathon Taylor in Indy last year.  That was enough to get him a new contract with the Broncos as the presumed lead back
• Clark Phillips III (CB, Atlanta): Phillips was initially seen as a nickel corner due to his size, but took over the starting boundary corner job as a rookie.  There's not been a lot added there, so he's still the starter

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (4):
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Dalton Kincaid (TE, Buffalo): Lots of hype about him as a pass-catching threat for Josh Allen, but for now he's sharing the role with (or even behind) Dawson Knox.  Looked good as a rookie, but still sharing snaps.
• Cole Bishop (S, Buffalo): The Bills recently moved on from both their starting safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.  Projections generally have Taylor Rapp starting at one spot and then either Bishop or Mario Edwards at the other.  It's likely Bishop eventually takes the starting role, but it may not be by the start of the season.
• Jonah Elliss (EDGE, Denver): There's a lot of edge rushers (OLB in the Broncos defense) and Elliss doesn't necessarily stand out from the pack, so likely won't open the season as the starter.  But the team just invested a 3rd round pick in him, so it's a good bet that he'll be largely involved in the rotation.
• Tim Patrick (WR, Denver): This shocks me to have Patrick in this tier.  The Broncos liked him a lot a few years back... but he then missed two consecutive seasons due to injury and I assumed he was done.  But most projections now have him as the WR3 or WR4 in Denver.  He has the potential to move up (if the Courtland Sutton trade rumors come to fruition or if Marvin Mims continues to be terrible)... but also the potential to move down(if 4th rounder Troy Franklin steps up quickly).  

Safe on roster; primarily depth (2):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Sione Vaki (RB/S, Detroit): If he's an RB, he's the RB3 at best.  There's more opportunity at safety, but that doesn't seem to be where they drafted him.  Bottom line, he's probably not playing unless there's some injuries...but as a 4th rounder, he's also basically a roster lock as a rookie. He is also developing a reputation as a special teams ace, which is a great way to have a long career
• Nephi Sewell (LB, New Orleans - IR/PUP): He's made the roster and contributed each of the past few seasons, but would still be on the 'likely to survive' tier....except that he's hurt.  That means it's much more likely he makes the initial 53 so they can place him on IR or PUP and then use that spot for someone else.  Once he comes back, he's probably going to have a depth/ST role, but it's no guarantee

Likely to survive cuts (4):

• Leki Fotu (DT, NY Jets): See the BYU writeup on Khyiris Tonga.  Fotu has more experience and has been cut fewer times, but the bottom line is still basically the same.  As a NT he's never going to play a major role, but he's also unique enough to likely stay on the roster for the times he is needed.
• Satoa Laumea (OG, Seattle): It's a bit shocking to have a drafted player here...but Seattle drafted an OG in the 3rd, two more (Laumea included) in the 6th, signed another as a UDFA and added a few in free agency.  That shows how much work they felt they needed there... but also the level of competition.  For now, the draft capital means Laumea is more likely to make it than not....but it's a precarious situation
• Devaughn Vele (WR, Denver): As a drafted player (even in the 7th), odds are in his favor to make it. But he's also considered a good physical prospect with some rawness ... so practice squad is also a real possibility and I've already seen some noise about that being a potential fit
• Braeden Daniels (OG/OT, Washington): A 4th rounder in 2023, Daniels missed his rookie season with a torn pec.  Every early projection I saw has him making it, but most pointed out that he's a bit of an unknown after not playing.  

Right on the bubble (2):

• Mohamoud Diabate (LB, Cleveland): Diabate was a UDFA last season and one of the biggest surprises to make a roster, but played very well in preseason. He's probably more likely than not to make it again this year, but the new coach may not roster as many LBers, so he has to prove himself again. 
• Britain Covey (WR/RS, Philadelphia): Covey opened up each of the past two seasons on the practice squad before eventually joining the active roster.  And in 2023 he showed himself as one of the best punt returners in the league, which should help him.  But the Eagles also drafted Cooper DeJean who is an excellent return man.  And some other WR.  If Covey is cut, he's likely shown enough as a returner to get a job elsewhere or at least end up on the practice squad.  But I'd lean slightly towards him not making it this year. Update: With Davante Parker retiring, I'd now move Covey to more likely than not to make the 53...but still a bubble case. If the Eagles try to sneak him onto the practice squad this year, it's likely someone else will steal him 

Likely cut (4):

• Jackson Barton (OT, Arizona): Spent 2022 bouncing between the Raiders' active roster and practice squad, then 2023 on the Cardinals practice squad.  He's spent enough time on active rosters that it wouldn't be a shock for him to make it, but the practice squad is definitely more likely
• Miles Battle (CB, Kansas City): Signed after the first wave of UDFA and competing with 2 other UDFA cornerbacks, my inclination is to put him in "almost certainly cut", but I found at least one local site which spotlighted him as one of the UDFAs most likely to make the roster...so I'll leave him here for now
• Cole Fotheringham (TE, Las Vegas): Spent 2022 and most of 2023 on Raiders' practice squad, but was active for a few weeks. Obviously Bowers and Michael Mayer are locks, so there's not a lot of opportunity for him, especially wiht Harrison Bryant also coming in as a free agent.  As a general rule though, I'm not going to put a guy who played last season in the 'Almost certainly cut' grouping - at least not yet.  Plus Fotheringham is a good blocker, which isn't the strong suit for either Bowers or Mayer.  If the team carries 4, he's probably in... but that seems unlikely.
• Keaton Bills (OG, Buffalo): Brought in as a UDFA, the Bills already have two solid starting guards and a guy who likely brings OG/C flexibility as a backup.  Given that they'll want two backup OTs, that leaves one spot for Keaton Bills, Alec Anderson (2022 UDFA) and Travis Clayton (2024 7th round pick).  Given that Anderson has been on the roster before and that Clayton was drafted ahead of Bills, it's likely Keaton has an uphill battle for that last spot. Still, the Athletic picked him out as the UDFA with the best chance to make the Bills' roster, so there's a chance here.

Almost certainly cut (4):

• Tyler Huntley (QB, Cleveland): At one point there was some hype about Huntley as an underrated asset.  That's no longer the case.  The Browns have a clear top 2 at the position (Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston) and then Huntely and DTR are competing for QB3 and QB4.  DTR is probably the favorite for #3 (and younger so a better fit for the pratice squad), but I'd be shocked if either of them were on the 53 to open the season.  Hard to see any path to Huntley making the roster
• Bradlee Anae (EDGE, Atlanta): Anae played out his initial contract with the Jets...but mostly because he was injured in 2023 and didn't count as taking a roster spot. He wasn't on a roster at the time of the draft, but since was signed by the Falcons.
• John Penisini (DT, New Orleans): Penisini medically retired after 2022, then tried to come back in 2023 only to be waived due to a failed physical. There's enough talent/physicality there that he was signed by the Saints to their practice squad and an off-season reserve contract...but he might be the guy I'd be more shocked to see on an active roster than any player on these lists.
• Thomas Yassmin (TE, Denver): Undrafted and signed as a UDFA. He also has the benefit of not taking up a normal roster spot (NFL allows an extra spot for International Pathways Players).  He was already drafted by a CFL team and highly likely he ends up there, but no reason for the Broncos to cut him as long as he fits into that International Pathways exemption.  After that point though, he'll be very likely to be cut

Already cut or unrostered (5):
These are generally players who were rostered or played last year but are currently not under contract with any team.  Most of them won't end up catching on, but occasionally they're worth keeping an eye on

• Eric Rowe (S/CB, Pittsburgh): Rowe has had a long career, but it's clearly coming to an end.  He's been on practice squads each of the last few seasons...and in each season he's been activated and played fairly well.  As a vet, I wouldn't be shocked to see him repeat the same process again, but it's an inevitability that at some point he'll stop getting those chances.
• Javelin Guidry (CB, NY Jets): Guidry has bounced around from team to team, mostly on practice squads.  He's incredibly fast (an official 4.29 40), and teams keep bringing him in for a look. Had a very strong 2023 preseason and was making a case...but then got hurt and waived with an injury settlment.  For a guy who relies on athleticism, he may be out of chances.
• Terrell Burgess (S, Washington): Burgess was cut by the Commanders in 2023, signed to the practice squad...but then later activated and spent most of the season on the active roster.  He has potential to be picked up by someone but will be competing for a roster spot at best.
• Marquise Blair (S, Philadelphia): Was a starter in 2020 before tearing his ACL that year.  Had another knee injury in 2021, then spent 2022 bouncing between practice squads.  Was signed by Eagles spring 2023 before being released due to injury. They then resigned him in Spring 2024...and then re-released him due to non-football injury in April 2024.  Too many injuries have taken their toll and it seems he's done.
• Chase Hansen (LB, New Orleans): Was on the Saints active roster for 4 seasons before suffering a season-long injury for 2023 and not playing.  Nobody has picked him up for 2024 and it's not very likley he will, but worth keeping an eye on, as hecould be a veteran option for some team 

Utah State

Clear Starters (2):

• Bobby Wagner (LB, Washington): Bobby Wagner may not be what he once was, but continues to be a quality starter
• Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay): Has turned into one of the more exciting young QBs in the NFL

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (1):
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

• Deven Thompkins (WR/RS, Tampa Bay): He's the #4 WR, and played about a quarter of the offensive snaps each of the past two years.  He's also the primary KR.  Definitely not a starter, but will see the field and contribute

Safe on roster; primarily depth (1):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Patrick Scales (LS, Chicago): Long-snapper means he's safe, but without a huge role

Likely to survive cuts (1):

• Jalen Davis (CB, Cincinnati): depth option at CB for the Bengals last year, will likely do the same this season.  Plays about 3 or 4 defensive snaps per game, but is listed as CB 7 or 8 in most cases.  DJ Ivey may start out on the PUP which will clear a spot for him

Right on the bubble (0):

Likely cut (0): 

Almost certainly cut (0):  

Already cut or unrostered (3):
These are generally players who were rostered or played last year but are currently not under contract with any team.  Most of them won't end up catching on, but occasionally they're worth keeping an eye on

• Derek Wright (WR, Carolina): Spent 2022 and 2023 on the Panthers' practice squad, has a shot to make a practice squad again, but not currently under contract
• Dallin Leavitt (S, Denver): Had a large ST role for a few years in Green Bay before being cut.  Spent last year on the Broncos practice squad
• Tyler Larsen (C/OG, Washington): A long-time Ron Rivera favorite, he's been cut and resigned by the Commanders repeatedly and even started games at center last year...before going on IR for a third consecutive season due to knee injuries. Not impossible someone takes a shot on him later when they need depth, but not someone a team can rely on

Weber St + ^Southern Utah + #Utah Tech

Clear Starters (3):

• Braxton Jones^ (OT, Chicago): starting LT for the Bears
• Taron Johnson (CB, Buffalo): one of the top 3 CBs on the roster, so I'm considering that a starter. Probably the nickleback role
• Rashid Shaheed (WR/RS, New Orleans): Huge success story.  2022 he was listed as certain to be cut...and was.  But then he played on the practice squad, then on the active roster and did well. 2023 he came in as a probable starter...and left as a pro bowl returned and with 700+ receiving yards.  He's now one of the better receiving threats for the Saints

Safe on roster; potential starters or regular contributors (0):
most of these guys should get fairly regular snaps and some may even end up as starters if they aren't already

Safe on roster; primarily depth (1):
these guys won't be playing barring injuries ahead of them... but for one reason or another, their roster spot is fairly secure

• Miles Killebrew^ (S, Pittsburgh): He's safety #5 for the Steelers, but a bit of a special teams ace (including making the Pro Bowl for it last season), so he's pretty safe

Likely to survive cuts (1):

• Sua Opeta (OG, Tampa Bay): after years as a depth option in Philadeplphia, Opeta is now with the Bucs in a similar role

Right on the bubble (0):

Likely cut (1): 

• Jonah Williams (DE, Minnesota): Was a surprise a few years back, making the Rams active roster and then actually ended up playing a fair amount.  Now with the Vikings, they've signed players to start over him.  Given his age and the projections I'm seeing, he looks more likely to be cut than not, but may have a chance to catch on elsewhere or to go to the practice squad.
• Isaiah Wooden^ (WR, Atlanta): Undersized and a UDFA, but Atlanta has needs at WR and the Athletic picked him as thr UDFA most likely to make the cut 

Almost certainly cut (0):  

Already cut (0):