Byu as a whole should have an easier schedule. You lost the two free wins from last year but the conf schedule will be easier without Tex/ OU.
It ALL hinges on QB. That is to be said about every team but it seems to be more the case with so many medium to low-tiered qbs on the roster.
Better D/ OL play with C-level QB play 6-6.
If one of those groups is bad 4-8.
I would guess if it started today byu will win 5 or more games.