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Feb 12, 2013
5:45:44pm
The bottom line of expansion is simple...
1) If the B1G and the SEC go to 16, the move will be to solidify their hold on top television markets and to push for four super-conferences.

2) If the B1G and the SEC move to 16, the B12 and the PAC will be forced to follow suit. Will you hear anything "formal" in the press? Of course not. But, it will be the kind of pressure found in back room deals because if the Big 4 (B12, B1G, PAC, and SEC) can kill off the ACC as a football power, it further consolidates "football" power in fewer conferences.

3) Along these same lines, a 16-team B1G/SEC is not going to allow a 12-team PAC or a 10-to-14-team B12 to get the same playoff money as their 16-team leagues, as it would give an uneven financial advantage to the smaller leagues (due to splitting the same piece of pie amongst a smaller number of member institutions).

4) With 16-team leagues, you will see fewer out of conference games. As has been alluded to by the leaders of the B1G, an 8-game schedule is not in play now that the B1g has moved to more teams. Think of it this way, with a 16-team conference, you automatically provide your TV partners (or PACTV/BTN) more inventory (without the cost of buying cheap-win home games) by increasing the number of conference games. The downside of this is fewer intersectional games.

All this said, BYU is still in a very strong position should the Big 4 move to the superconference phase, as it appears they are. As others have speculated, if the B1G takes VA/GT, the SEC could take VT/NC, the B12 could then take as many as 6 ACC teams (or 5 ACC teams + BYU). And, even if the B12 takes only ACC teams and leaves BYU out, the PAC will not be able to turn their noses up at BYU to get to 16. There just aren't enough teams in the west to justify it. Assuming the B12 doesn't take BYU, the only real options available to the PAC are: AFA, BSU, BYU, CSU, SDSU, UNLV, and UNM. Yes, some of these are laughable. But, there just ain't anybody else. And, as badly as the PAC hates BYU, they won't pass on BYU's money-making machine in favor of any of those teams.

Patience is a virtue. If BYU plays its cards right, all will work out in the end, one way or another.
TrueBlue67
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TrueBlue67
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2/12/13 1:12pm

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