Individual performance isn't random, but it can be highly variable

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Sep 11, 2013
9:18:02am

Indy Coug

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 184,720 (9,833 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

ERA is s dumb useless statistic. Anyone here know why?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 8:55am

ERA is a lot better than many other "traditional" pitching statistics

Indy Coug

9/11/13 8:58am

How is it usefull at all? It doesn't correlate year-to-year at all.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 8:58am

What do you mean "correlate year-to-year"?

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:01am

Plot all pitcher's ERA this year vs. next year ERA and there's no correlation.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:03am

Why would you expect correlation between the two?

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:03am

If ERA were a skill you'd expect a pitcher to have pretty consistent ERA year-to

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:04am

ERA isn't a skill. Throwing hard is an ability, throwing accurately is a skill

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:06am

So it's a composite skill. Then why is it so random?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:12am

Park factors are easily controlled for statistically, yet ERA is still random

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:12am

Individual performance isn't random, but it can be highly variable

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:18am

A pitcher's BB, SO, K, HR, groundball %, flyball % are not random. Whether the

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:23am

(For the pitcher, not for the batter)

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:23am

Have you plotted that?

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:28am

Yes, I have seen the correlation numbers.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:32am

I would be interested in seeing them

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:36am

RE: I would be interested in seeing them

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:41am

Guess I should say poor correlation, not no correlation.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:42am

I can't view it at work, so I will have to look at it at home

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:55am

Hint: the correlation is 0.38. The following statistics have a correlation in

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:39am

I've never argued that ERA is the best stat, I have been arguing that it

Clark Addison

9/11/13 11:01am

Why use ERA when you can compute DIPS, FIPS, LIPS, or QuikERA almost as easily?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 11:46am

Pitching abilities don't correlate year to year, why should pitching metrics?

OpusX

9/11/13 9:46am

i can agree with RBI. I don't understand your problem with ERA.

TheRowdy

9/11/13 9:00am

Pitchers have little control over balls in play. The only thing it can influence

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:01am

That's why unearned runs are excluded. If you take out errors and poor

Tim

9/11/13 9:06am

Erros capture only a tiny fraction of a fielder's ability. If you don't go for a

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:43am

What is wrong with RBI? Seems like a useful measure to me. After all,

workindev

9/11/13 9:16am

Because it isn't evenly available across all positions in the order.

Tim

9/11/13 9:17am

I disagree with this because baseball people don't expect leadoff hitter to

JOPE

9/11/13 10:41am

What if everybody who bats in front of you sucks?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:41am

I am not saying that A is better than B because A has 110 RBI and B has 104

JOPE

9/11/13 10:49am

Good hitters bat in the middle of the lineup. That's why their RBIs are so high.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:59am

Disagree. ERA still has value. It's wins that are useless.

Tim

9/11/13 9:01am

I like WHIP

cougrfan70

9/11/13 9:02am

I like WHIP, too. No need to limit ourselves. The more meaningful stats, the

Tim

9/11/13 9:03am

I like Nate Silver's QuikERA.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:05am

You would... Democrat..

Solomon Levi

9/11/13 9:23am

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:40am

I think ERA is a more useful stat

OpusX

9/11/13 9:39am

I like W's. That is best indicator.

BYUheaven

9/11/13 9:06am

Signed.... Matt Harvey

Solomon Levi

9/11/13 9:23am

ERA, WHIP and BAA are the best pitching stats IMO

JOPE

9/11/13 10:38am

???

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