Pitching abilities don't correlate year to year, why should pitching metrics?

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Sep 11, 2013
9:46:04am

OpusX

Pitching abilities don't correlate year to year, why should pitching metrics?

As a Giants fan, I watched Lincecum go from a dominating pitcher to a barely serviceable relief pitcher. He lost velocity on his fastball and wasn't as good. His ERA reflected that. Strasburg isn't the same pitcher he has been in the past. His ERA reflects. It's ridiculous to expect pitching stats to correlate year to year. Pitching arms don't hold up year to year.

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OpusX

Bio page: OpusX
Joined: Nov 26, 2009
Last login: Feb 13, 2019
Total posts: 13,312 (206 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

ERA is s dumb useless statistic. Anyone here know why?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 8:55am

ERA is a lot better than many other "traditional" pitching statistics

Indy Coug

9/11/13 8:58am

How is it usefull at all? It doesn't correlate year-to-year at all.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 8:58am

What do you mean "correlate year-to-year"?

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:01am

Plot all pitcher's ERA this year vs. next year ERA and there's no correlation.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:03am

Why would you expect correlation between the two?

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:03am

If ERA were a skill you'd expect a pitcher to have pretty consistent ERA year-to

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:04am

ERA isn't a skill. Throwing hard is an ability, throwing accurately is a skill

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:06am

So it's a composite skill. Then why is it so random?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:12am

Park factors are easily controlled for statistically, yet ERA is still random

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:12am

Individual performance isn't random, but it can be highly variable

Indy Coug

9/11/13 9:18am

A pitcher's BB, SO, K, HR, groundball %, flyball % are not random. Whether the

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:23am

(For the pitcher, not for the batter)

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:23am

Have you plotted that?

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:28am

Yes, I have seen the correlation numbers.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:32am

I would be interested in seeing them

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:36am

RE: I would be interested in seeing them

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:41am

Guess I should say poor correlation, not no correlation.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:42am

I can't view it at work, so I will have to look at it at home

Clark Addison

9/11/13 9:55am

Hint: the correlation is 0.38. The following statistics have a correlation in

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:39am

I've never argued that ERA is the best stat, I have been arguing that it

Clark Addison

9/11/13 11:01am

Why use ERA when you can compute DIPS, FIPS, LIPS, or QuikERA almost as easily?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 11:46am

Pitching abilities don't correlate year to year, why should pitching metrics?

OpusX

9/11/13 9:46am

i can agree with RBI. I don't understand your problem with ERA.

TheRowdy

9/11/13 9:00am

Pitchers have little control over balls in play. The only thing it can influence

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:01am

That's why unearned runs are excluded. If you take out errors and poor

Tim

9/11/13 9:06am

Erros capture only a tiny fraction of a fielder's ability. If you don't go for a

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:43am

What is wrong with RBI? Seems like a useful measure to me. After all,

workindev

9/11/13 9:16am

Because it isn't evenly available across all positions in the order.

Tim

9/11/13 9:17am

I disagree with this because baseball people don't expect leadoff hitter to

JOPE

9/11/13 10:41am

What if everybody who bats in front of you sucks?

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:41am

I am not saying that A is better than B because A has 110 RBI and B has 104

JOPE

9/11/13 10:49am

Good hitters bat in the middle of the lineup. That's why their RBIs are so high.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 10:59am

Disagree. ERA still has value. It's wins that are useless.

Tim

9/11/13 9:01am

I like WHIP

cougrfan70

9/11/13 9:02am

I like WHIP, too. No need to limit ourselves. The more meaningful stats, the

Tim

9/11/13 9:03am

I like Nate Silver's QuikERA.

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:05am

You would... Democrat..

9/11/13 9:23am

ChinoCoug

9/11/13 9:40am

I think ERA is a more useful stat

OpusX

9/11/13 9:39am

I like W's. That is best indicator.

BYUheaven

9/11/13 9:06am

Signed.... Matt Harvey

9/11/13 9:23am

ERA, WHIP and BAA are the best pitching stats IMO

JOPE

9/11/13 10:38am

???

Walter Bellhaven

4/24/14 1:05pm

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