immediately. Don't know if that's true exactly, but that and the point you raise are potential flaws.

The ACC anaylsis that includes Duke is here: https://blogs.emory.edu/sportsmarketing/2013/06/17/converting-high-school-talent-into-nba-draft-picks-ranking-the-acc/

Basically, Duke puts about as many guys in the NBA as you would expect given their recruiting classes' talent level.

There is a separate analysis that could be done only focusing on 4*-5* guys, answering the question, "If you are a 4* or 5* guy, where should you go to school?" The answer could be different.

In football, the answer is that you should go where you can play immediately and that is the best way to improve your odds, by far.

https://blogs.emory.edu/sportsmarketing/2013/04/24/want-to-get-drafted-in-the-nfl-go-to-kentucky-not-alabama/

Might or might not apply in hoops. The star ratings in hoops are way more accurate because of AAU ball.