expecting, IMO. For starters, only 3 conferences will be represented on a fairly regular basis, if the past is any indicator.

Take 2013 for example. #1 Florida State and #2 Auburn were indisputable--they were in. #3 Alabama was the defending national champion, and their only loss was to #2 Auburn on a last second, flukey play. The general consensus at the time was that Bama was the best team in the country, and they caught a bad break. You aren't going to have #5 Stanford--with their 2 losses, including one to a 5-7 Utah team--jump up over Alabama. Bama wasn't their conference champion, and while conference champion is a factor, we all know that a 1-loss non-conference champion ranked #2 or #3 is going to be in. Especially when the next best option is a #5 ranked team with 2 losses, and one of them being bad.

Michigan State was #4, and they had just one loss, and that was to #25 (at seasons end) Notre Dame on the road. 1 less loss, plus it was against a quality team=Michigan State easily in over Stanford.


The 2013 playoff field would have had:

2 SEC teams
1 Big 10 team
1 ACC team

Neither the PAC-12 nor the Big 12 would have had a team in the playoff.

2012 would have had a similar outcome--except with #1 Notre Dame in the playoff, only 2 P5 conferences would have had a team in the playoff (IMO, #3 Florida--whose only loss was a 17-9 setback to #7 Georgia--would have been in over #5 Kansas State, who had a 52-24 loss to 7-5 Baylor). However, even if you think KSU gets in over Florida, that would still only be 3 conferences--leaving 2 P5 out. Pretty sure it would have been just two conferences though. Without going through the whole breakdown, the following teams would have likely been in the playoff in 2012:

2 from the SEC (Alabama and Florida)
Independent Notre Dame
1 from the PAC-12 (Oregon)

More of the same in 2011.

#1 LSU and #2 Alabama are in for sure. 1-loss #3 Oklahoma State and 1-loss #4 Stanford are also in. Unless you think that 2-loss #5 Oregon gets in over Stanford, which is obviously just a trade for one conference rep for another. Certainly, 2-loss Arkansas at #6 wouldn't be the 3rd SEC team in the playoff, and neither would 1-loss Boise State at #7. Kansas State from the BIG-12 was #8--Oklahoma State was already in from the BIG-12--and another SEC team, South Carolina, was #9. You'd have to drop all the way to #10 Wisconsin to find a BIG 10 rep. And that's obviously not happening. So the Big 10 and the ACC would have both been left out in 2011.

For a non-SEC example, look at 2006. #1 Ohio State, and #2 Florida (who played in the NC game over #3 Michigan, possibly in part due to Urban Meyer's campaigning) were both in, and so was 1-loss Michigan, who had that crazy OT loss to Ohio State in their final game of the regular season. LSU was #4, Louisville, who played a weak sauce schedule, was #5, and Wisconsin was #6. To have even a 3rd conference represtented that season, they would have had to selected #5 Louisville, or #7 Oklahoma. If they didn't take either of those, you'd have been staring at 2 Big 10 and 2 SEC teams.

I didn't look further, but it's clear that in the last three seasons only 2 or 3 of the P5 conferences would be represented. It's not going to be just 1 conference left out year in and year out. It will often be 2, and occasionally 3.

For that reason, I don't think we've seen the end of the changes. The playoff will go to 8 much sooner than people expect, in my opinion. And the Big 12 may well be forced to expand. An 8 team playoff, IMO, would be a big benefit to Independent BYU. Because if they ran the table and finished ranked in the top 5-6, they would almost certainly be in (IMO).