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Apr 27, 2015
10:27:58pm
XXL
I simulated the season 100,000 times in R (statistical software) based on your

individual game probabilities and assuming these are independent events. Here is the percent chance we attain each win-loss record.

12-0    0.142%

11-1    1.522%

10-2    6.709%

9-3     17.000%

8-4     25.750%

7-5     25.081%

6-6     15.569%

5-7     6.357%

4-8     1.592%

3-9     0.263%

2-10    0.015%

If you want to take 10-2 to the bank, your probabilities for each game are on average too low. This is normally distributed around 7-8 wins with less than a 7% chance of getting to ten wins.

 

XXL
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XXL
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4/27/15 6:37pm

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