That's what's up for interpretation.

Apr 28, 2015
1:34:36pm

Bronco4Prez

Usually if someone says "BYU has less than a X% chance of winning 10 games," my brain interprets that as the chance of winning AT LEAST 10 games. If that's what he's saying, then that is not correct (given these game-by-game probabilities).

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Bronco4Prez

New username: Kalani4Prez
Bio page: Bronco4Prez
Joined: Aug 22, 2007
Last login: Dec 29, 2015
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Messages

Author

Time

BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

nashty

4/27/15 4:55pm

Something I learned from the bowl game vs Washington two years ago.

Blueto

4/27/15 5:11pm

Except Bronco got out coached by an interim HC

LV Mike

4/27/15 5:28pm

Just what aspects of that game do you attribute to coaching and what to talent,

basman

4/27/15 5:35pm

We were absolutely manhandled in the trenches. Very rarely

bluescholar

4/27/15 5:47pm

That UW team significantly underperformed that year. They had a lot of NFL

Mikey

4/27/15 5:51pm

7-5, depending on bowl opponent, 7-6/8-5 at best

Y4LYFE

4/27/15 6:13pm

This is very optimistic. I wish I had it, but I expect no better than 8-4.

Mikey

4/27/15 5:14pm

yes, it is. i think if taysom is healthy for 12 games we have a good shot at

nashty

4/27/15 5:38pm

<< Deleted >>

Still Questing

4/27/15 7:25pm

RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

Sacto Cougar

4/27/15 6:08pm

I bet we lose to Nebraska, beat BSU, lose the next two, then win out.

jcougars7

4/27/15 6:26pm

14% or .14%?

run26

4/27/15 6:37pm

Your odds for each game yield an expected result of 7.5 wins.

CallingDingo

4/27/15 7:31pm

You have to factor in the odds of Taysom getting hurt again.

pittsburghcoug

4/27/15 8:01pm

At first I thought you meant 14%. Missed the decimal. 0.14% is reasonable.

buckles

4/27/15 10:00pm

I simulated the season 100,000 times in R (statistical software) based on your

XXL

4/27/15 10:27pm

Is that correct? Do you add the probabilities of 11-1 and 10-2 for probability

(Private)

4/28/15 7:47am

Probability of winning exactly 10 games = 6.7%.

Bronco4Prez

4/28/15 8:17am

That's what I was thinking... so he is incorrect in saying less than 7% chance

(Private)

4/28/15 10:10am

That's what's up for interpretation.

Bronco4Prez

4/28/15 1:34pm

so it looks like my percentages are dead on then...what i'm saying is i think

nashty

4/28/15 11:05am

Logic fail: @ Neb - 45% W, @ UCLA - 35% W, vs Cinci - 75% L

ptcougr

4/28/15 3:54am

real life fail...just b/c the % is "x" doesn't mean you can't win or lose the

nashty

4/28/15 11:07am

If you use your probabilities there is a 0.14% chance of 12-0, 1.53% chance of

midwestcoug

4/28/15 7:28am

I'm worried about Wagner.

Real Men Wear Blue

4/28/15 8:14am

RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

CloseToIt

4/28/15 8:49am

I think the obvious is the asterisk - if Taysom is healthy

gww687

4/28/15 9:21am

I don't think we go better than 8-5

Jeffe

4/28/15 10:04am

If BYU has 2 wins in their first four games, I'll be shocked and amazed

Moneycounter

4/28/15 11:20am

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