That's what I was thinking... so he is incorrect in saying less than 7% chance

Apr 28, 2015
10:10:16am

(Private)

of winning 10 games.

Obviously this is based on a completely arbitrary model and assumption of percentages... (no offense to Nashty).

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(Private)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

nashty

4/27/15 4:55pm

Something I learned from the bowl game vs Washington two years ago.

Blueto

4/27/15 5:11pm

Except Bronco got out coached by an interim HC

LV Mike

4/27/15 5:28pm

Just what aspects of that game do you attribute to coaching and what to talent,

basman

4/27/15 5:35pm

We were absolutely manhandled in the trenches. Very rarely

bluescholar

4/27/15 5:47pm

That UW team significantly underperformed that year. They had a lot of NFL

Mikey

4/27/15 5:51pm

7-5, depending on bowl opponent, 7-6/8-5 at best

Y4LYFE

4/27/15 6:13pm

This is very optimistic. I wish I had it, but I expect no better than 8-4.

Mikey

4/27/15 5:14pm

yes, it is. i think if taysom is healthy for 12 games we have a good shot at

nashty

4/27/15 5:38pm

<< Deleted >>

Still Questing

4/27/15 7:25pm

RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

Sacto Cougar

4/27/15 6:08pm

I bet we lose to Nebraska, beat BSU, lose the next two, then win out.

jcougars7

4/27/15 6:26pm

14% or .14%?

run26

4/27/15 6:37pm

Your odds for each game yield an expected result of 7.5 wins.

CallingDingo

4/27/15 7:31pm

You have to factor in the odds of Taysom getting hurt again.

pittsburghcoug

4/27/15 8:01pm

At first I thought you meant 14%. Missed the decimal. 0.14% is reasonable.

buckles

4/27/15 10:00pm

I simulated the season 100,000 times in R (statistical software) based on your

XXL

4/27/15 10:27pm

Is that correct? Do you add the probabilities of 11-1 and 10-2 for probability

(Private)

4/28/15 7:47am

Probability of winning exactly 10 games = 6.7%.

Bronco4Prez

4/28/15 8:17am

That's what I was thinking... so he is incorrect in saying less than 7% chance

(Private)

4/28/15 10:10am

That's what's up for interpretation.

Bronco4Prez

4/28/15 1:34pm

so it looks like my percentages are dead on then...what i'm saying is i think

nashty

4/28/15 11:05am

Logic fail: @ Neb - 45% W, @ UCLA - 35% W, vs Cinci - 75% L

ptcougr

4/28/15 3:54am

real life fail...just b/c the % is "x" doesn't mean you can't win or lose the

nashty

4/28/15 11:07am

If you use your probabilities there is a 0.14% chance of 12-0, 1.53% chance of

midwestcoug

4/28/15 7:28am

I'm worried about Wagner.

Real Men Wear Blue

4/28/15 8:14am

RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions

CloseToIt

4/28/15 8:49am

I think the obvious is the asterisk - if Taysom is healthy

gww687

4/28/15 9:21am

I don't think we go better than 8-5

Jeffe

4/28/15 10:04am

If BYU has 2 wins in their first four games, I'll be shocked and amazed

Moneycounter

4/28/15 11:20am

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