I agree with Nashty in that the B1G really could cause some trouble. My opinion is that the B1G takes Virginia and UNC and continue's it's march down the eastern coast OR it convinces Notre Dame to come home as a full member of the richest conference. Then I could see the ACC begging WV to leave the Big 12 and picking up either UCONN or Cincinnati to stabilize itself. If the ACC were to expand past that, I see them adding ND as a full (if it didn't join the B1G AND it is in a good mood that day) and then adding Navy or possibly UCF or Memphis. I can't imagine the ACC going for the OK schools that are 1,000 miles away from everyone else, but I could be wrong (see: partial membership to Notre Dame). Likewise, I don't know if OU would WANT to go to the ACC.

So now the Big 12 is down a member (WV finally where it belongs), and adds BYU quickly to stabilize. And that's it. If they gets smart (they aren't smart in the Big 12) and decide to get up to 12, I would guess they go with 2 from a pool of: Air Force, CSU, SDSU, UNLV, Houston, SMU, and whichever above AAC member the ACC didn't take. The B1G will steal a couple of P5 members from the conference it has raided before. The ACC will look to poach any P5's out there that are willing (only WV will make any sense, and MAYBE ND), and then add a couple of solid G5 schools to round out to 16 if they really want 16. The SEC might take the OK schools, and the OK schools might bolt ala TAM, but I don't think they're going anywhere. I believe in is clearly in Texas' best interest to keep the Big 12 afloat. I think Texas will do what it needs to to keep OU happy.

The thing is: we've been down this road already. There really isn't anything new about the situation. If Texas wanted to leave, it would have. Same with OU. The last round of realignment was crazy, and people acted crazy. Look at Notre Dame, for example. Is there any reason that joining the ACC as a partial member helped them at all? I don't see it. They could have joined any conference they wanted, whatever day they wanted to do it. Just make a call and they are in. Scheduling wasn't hard for them. They've got NBC paying them. They have bowl tie-in's. I know people were talking about independents being left out in the cold and that ND "better join a conference if it doesn't want to be left behind", but there is no realistic way on earth that the most storied program in college football would just be left behind. I think they hastily jumped into the conference (albeit with only one leg) because they thought that realignment was still coming. Then the GOR came about and the earthquakes stopped.

The Big 12 will survive because Texas needs it to survive, and the main reason for that is the LHN. If Nashty and others are correct, and P5 becomes P4 and the Big 12 goes away, I'd offer up Scenario 3 (to the two that Nashty mentioned), and that is: Texas goes Independent. That is a program that is rich enough with a fanbase big enough to support the move. If Texas goes Indy and can talk ND into staying Indy, those two schools can figure out a way to be included. ND has done it for years and Texas only makes the position stronger. If Texas/Independent scenario happens, I would say that BYU stay indy and do whatever it can to be included with those two.

It's fun to speculate about this stuff. Personally, I believe that when the dust settles after the next round of realignment, the B1G will get a little b1gger thanks to the ACC, the ACC will get a little weaker but stay together (thanks to the former Big East), the Big 12 will get a little stronger (adding BYU and losing WV.. that's right, I'm a homer), and the Pac 12 will stay the Pac 12 (mainly because they don't really have good options that they're willing to consider). So.... pretty much what happened last round of realignment will happen again this round.