If BYU can't sustain the relationship at the current payout, then ESPN either pays more or BYU goes back to the MWC (and ESPN loses the opportunity). Future schedules lend to the idea that ESPN would decide that it's worth it to pay more to BYU so that independence can remain viable for BYU and both parties win. I think you're right that they're not going to dish out 20M, but they will dish out enough for independence to remain viable. That's the theory anyway.