I don't think they win more than 4 games with asu, cal, or washington's schedules.
Look at their schedules and find the wins...I don't see them. That's not to say they couldn't pull an upset, they were a good enough team that could upset somebody, but I don't think they would have been favored in more than 4 games on any of cal, asu, or washington's schedules.
These teams all played much harder schedules than cincy, and finished 20-30 spots higher in sagarin rankings. They're not comparable squads.