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Feb 8, 2016
12:01:14pm
Linescratcher All-American
Since 1900, there has been only one 24-30 month period where your strategy works
There's more than a little recency bias in your approach. Its true that if you look at someone who bought in 2005-2007, there's a decent chance that they would have been better off doing what you're talking about. But if you look at any other buyer during any other 30-month period over the previous century, they'd come out worse if they took your advice. That of course factors in things like the interest rate deduc

Over the last 100+ years, the stock market has had good years and bad, bears and bulls. Interest rates have risen and fallen. The labor market has fluctuated. Wars have started and ended. Housing prices have even gone down. But to have the kind of rapid, steep, and sustained house price drops that would make this strategy worthwhile, you have to have the perfect culmination of events that we've only ever seen from 2008-2010. That's the hundred-year flood, and for a variety of reasons, it doesn't make sense to assume that it will happen again any time soon.

I mean, if you really believed what you're saying, you could get out ahead of the game now, sell your house, rent, and come out ahead in a few years.
Linescratcher
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Linescratcher
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