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Feb 8, 2016
1:21:23pm
Linescratcher All-American
This is an interesting article that doesn't come close to proving your point.
Again, your point (as I understand it) is that home ownership will suddenly and rapidly become much more affordable in such a timeframe that selling now, renting for a while, and then purchasing makes economic sense. I just don't think that's true. If you actually believed that, why don't you sell your house now and cash out at the top of the market? And buy in a few years after renting?

Additionally, the article you linked to actually proves exactly the opposite of what you are claiming. If we were currently in a high interest rate environment, then selling now with the expectation that interest rates would drop, and renting in the interim until they did drop might make sense. But in our current environment of historically low interest rates, there's a reasonable expectation that interest rates will rise, thus making future affordability scarcer, regardless of what home prices do. If home prices dropped 10%, but interest rates rose 5%, you'd be money behind by following your strategy, even if home prices dropped. And even then, rents would likely continue to go up. And you'd lose out on the MI deduction.

As I stated, it's much more likely that the rate of appreciation slows. It's even possible that home prices actually decline somewhat. But factoring the rising cost of renting, the loss of the MI deduction, and the likelihood of future interest rate increases, your plan makes zero sense.

The only time it would make sense is in the once-in-a century kind of economic conditions we had from '07-10. Even then, it would've been a crapshoot, since no one had ever really seen anything like that before.
Linescratcher
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Linescratcher
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