And I'm 80% sure that either they will or will not expand.

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May 27, 2016
11:29:26am

BluebloodOR Walk-on

Wrap your heads around that you statisticians!

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BluebloodOR

Bio page: BluebloodOR
Joined: Oct 3, 2011
Last login: May 16, 2024
Total posts: 3,042 (2 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Wow. Harmon thinks there is better than a 50% chance that the Big12 votes to

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:48am

What's his record on Big 12 predictions? Double or nothing on this one.

Diablo and Doc

5/27/16 9:50am

He's ofer. But he's still got connections at BYU so you can't completely

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:51am

Was he claiming sources?

concolor couguar

5/27/16 9:52am

He didn't say.

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:53am

No one will say their sources

Heinz57

5/27/16 9:56am

It is common place to attribute sources for this kind of claim

concolor couguar

5/27/16 10:00am

Harmon has said in the past that he thought it was likely in the future

5/27/16 12:44pm

He is a BYU fan. He knows nothing about expansion.

Backcountry

5/27/16 1:12pm

Every time BYU has been invited to join the B12, he got it right.

zonacougar

5/27/16 10:41am

They either will or they won't, so obviously there's a 50% chance

BYUCoug11

5/27/16 9:50am

umm. someone needs to go retake Stats 201 I think.

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:52am

It's very simple. Don't overcomplicate it

BYUCoug11

5/27/16 9:53am

No I think he's right. Using his logic we have a 50% chance of winning the NC

Ron Mexico

5/27/16 9:54am

Love it. I'll take those odds.

Bostonblue

5/27/16 10:07am

So..you're saying I have a 50% chance of winning the lottery?? Either I will

Machiavelli

5/27/16 12:20pm

Yes

Ryan M

5/27/16 10:00pm

And I'm 80% sure that either they will or will not expand.

BluebloodOR

5/27/16 11:29am

You mean Harmon from the Deseret News!!!!... come on man of course he does...

Pretorian

5/27/16 9:50am

???

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:51am

everything you read in the DN will reflect positively for BYU and the Church.

Pretorian

5/27/16 9:58am

okay, but being "positive" is different than just making crap up.

Bostonblue

5/27/16 11:37am

Calling it simply being positive is naive but you're right about the Trib

Pretorian

5/27/16 8:03pm

So that'd be at least a 30% chance of joining which is around the 1 in 3 odds

jreid191

5/27/16 9:51am

Why is that hard to comprehend?

Heinz57

5/27/16 9:53am

It's not hard to comprehend. What is surprising is that he thinks they

Bostonblue

5/27/16 9:56am

Gotcha...

Heinz57

5/27/16 9:56am

2017 *could* work, but we have a pretty sweet schedule, I'd prefer 2018

boscatar

5/27/16 10:12am

Consider what our 2017 schedule could be though

ManicBlue

5/27/16 10:27am

YES we're in!!!

SouthernBlueBlood

5/27/16 9:53am

My only glimmer of hope is when Holmoe was asked last week

Triggerhappybunny

5/27/16 9:55am

That gif, made my day

Heinz57

5/27/16 10:35am

Lol...homoe

Machiavelli

5/27/16 12:22pm

And that is more than he usually says and so it carries more weight, IMO.

bob falfa

5/27/16 12:47pm

So you're telling me there's a chance!

BangkokCoug

5/27/16 9:59am

So a 30% chance we are in that soon, 60% chance eventually?

CosmoK

5/27/16 10:00am

I'd say that's about right.

Josef K

5/27/16 10:00am

Actually wouldn't surprise me considering the B12 just might want

ManicBlue

5/27/16 10:01am

BYU is the Sharlene Wells of the B12!

Creekster

5/27/16 10:30am

And who's Vanessa Williams? Baylor or TCU?

mantis mutu

5/28/16 7:59am

Logical and I could see that as well

Heinz57

5/27/16 10:37am

You're probably on to something there.

Accipiter

5/27/16 2:15pm

60% of the time, they're voting BYU every time.

Diablo and Doc

5/27/16 10:01am

or byu's stadium is second in size next to UT's and OU's

byuprof

5/27/16 12:54pm

You can prove anything with statistics. 14% of all people know that.

Kougrage

5/27/16 2:15pm

Didn't Dick lose his insider source when Lance Reynolds left the program?

Random Walk

5/27/16 10:12am

RE: Wow. Harmon thinks there is better than a 50% chance that the Big12 votes

davidmj10

5/27/16 10:36am

did you skip fractions day? that's not as bad as skipping leg day, but still...

yahtzee

5/27/16 10:39am

I skipped math in general but even I know 60 + 50 is 110.

davidmj10

5/27/16 2:14pm

it isn't 50%+60%, it's 50% * 60%.

yahtzee

5/27/16 2:56pm

Wow! We're in for sure then ... that's 3000%!!

ManicBlue

5/27/16 3:15pm

Rumor has it that Holmoe already sent a draft acceptance op-ed to the DesNews.

El Fuego

5/27/16 11:14am

Doesn't jive with report we were told we're "definitely out"

byujdmba

5/27/16 12:00pm

What report? Link?

BamaCoug

5/27/16 1:03pm

I'm pretty sure the "report" he's referring to is the twitter account here:

Machiavelli

5/27/16 1:09pm

That's the one. The past tweets do make interesting reading.

byujdmba

5/27/16 1:38pm

Well yeah, because if he put a low percentage, nobody would share the article

Machiavelli

5/27/16 12:18pm

Dick & his predictions. Ngata interested, thanx.

mantis mutu

5/27/16 12:53pm

Ngata was interested. It came down to BYU and Oregon.

Bobmarleyjr

5/27/16 2:47pm

I remember the whole scenario, thanx. But ultimately Mr Harmon's prediction was

mantis mutu

5/27/16 3:47pm

Dick really nailed it with his prediction last time around.

Backcountry

5/27/16 1:10pm

Harmon's thing is deep local contacts and insight. National forecast not so much

keylimesoda

5/27/16 1:50pm

More a "was" than an "is" thing. He writes like he's 20 yrs retired these days.

mantis mutu

5/27/16 1:55pm

He's well connected, regardless of writing quality.

Gentleman Stan

5/27/16 7:41pm

I was being more critical of his effort than his ability.

mantis mutu

5/27/16 8:08pm

I agree and agree...

LEDSFW

5/27/16 2:30pm

Those percentages only mean one thing

curmudgeon

5/27/16 7:03pm

There is also a 50% chance that....

cosmos son

5/27/16 11:21pm

60% of the Time, Harmon is right 100% of the time.

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