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Jun 27, 2016
12:10:04am
BamaCoug All-American
Some "clean up" thoughts on Big12 Expansion.

1) The Big12 not expanding this year is not the worst scenario for BYU. The worst scenario would be for the Big12 to expand and NOT to include BYU. That would rip my heart out and re-up the "persecution complex" to another level altogether. Especially with a traditional Conference network off the table for the Big12, I honestly can't forsee them expanding now or in the next couple of years and not including BYU. Most here didn't put the possibility of expansion much higher than 50% (I think I said 60% at one point) ... but, felt much more confident about the possibility of BYU being included if expansion was pursued. I still feel this way (see point #3 below)

2) I've seen lot's of lazy and sarcastic comments from BYU folks essentially saying:

"This is what we've seen every summer. You hopeful fans are just wishing for what will never come and haven't learned anything from the past few years"

This off-season has been notably different than the last few.

  • They had formed a committee of 3 Presidents (Gee, Starr, and Boren) to further explore the idea of expansion.
  • Of those three, Boren was pushing publicly and forcefully for expansion and the other two were either publicly (Gee) or quietly (Starr) pro-expansion as well.
  • Boren stated inclusion criteria that were STRONGLY favorable toward BYU: Fanbase, Athletics, Academics, and, to some degree, Geography.
  • There were many reports that the majority of Big12 Teams were in favor of expansion ... potentially all of them sans Texas (though the Longhorns might control "minion" schools votes of TTech/TCU)
  • The Navigate data bears out that a 12 team conference with 8 confs games followed by a CCG is the most likely way to get a team in the CFP.  Getting to 12 teams seemed very important to everyone when that data was first released.
  • Everone but Texas wanted to form a Conf Network.  To have enough quality content the media partner would likely recommend expansion by 2 or even 4 teams.

3) I still feel what the Big12 needs is for TWO schools to STAND UP AND BE NOTICED.  Notice how much buzz surrounded the idea of Houston and Memphis being legitimate contenders for Big12 inclusion (the former more than the latter).  Although BYU has done much more than either of these schools on the Gridiron, the now-ness of UH/Memphis successes lends credibility to their inclusion and "cover" to a conference for adding them.  It may well be that the Big12 is fine with adding BYU "as is" (i.e. we've proved enough already and have a big enough fan base to warrant inclusion already) ... but a few signature wins over P5 teams this year could only help our cause ... and may be enough to "seal the deal."  BYU is definitely in the pole position for one of the first 2 spots already.  Cinci and Houston are probably the next in line and it would be VERY helpful if ONE of these teams (but not both) would have a NY6 Bowl-type season like UH did last year.  If one of them did that (ideally if Cinci goes 12-1 as AAC champs, with their one loss being at home to BYU, and then wins a NY6 Bowl), then the attractiveness of a BYU/Cinci add goes up quite a bit and the "non-dilutive" argument loses credibility. I'm hoping Sitake and Co can pull a 2001 Crowton and take another coaches' players on an looong undefeated streak.

4) What's in it for the Big12 to wait another year or two to expand?  Maybe they never will expand ... who knows for sure with this oft-dysfunctional conference.  Although the initial reports of the Big12 Media contract (which runs through the 2025-6 school-year) were that each school would get a $20M/year payout for the length of the contract, we have also seen that the yearly overall payout to Big12 member schools has been increasing (though this figure is from more than just the media deal).  If the media contract does indeed have an escalating payout in addition to the pro rata clause, then the Big12 schools would garner more $$ by waiting until the last 4-5 years of the contract to skim the percentages from the newly added schools. 

5) I still maintain that the timing of the ESPN/BYU deal could have been bad for us in that ESPN would be unlikely to be encouraging the Big12 to expand with BYU now.  Indeed, they may be discouraging the Big12 from taking BYU until after the 2019 season. 

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=16036899

6) It's been a crazy summer and it seems that expansion talk is all but dead.  I'm resigned to giving up hope for expansion this year.  However, I'm as excited as ever to continue to cheer for my Cougars and support them in every way I can.  I'm planning to travel to at least 3 games this year. 

7) All of the data I've gathered and presented ( best compiled here  ) has been a worthwhile and instructive experience for me and others.  It's simultaneously reassuring and frustrating to see how strongly the data favors BYU ... yet to still be on the outside of the P5 looking in.  I'll readily admit that I'll be hoping for and hanging on any future rumors/news of Big12 expansion.  It's sad but true ...

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:10:04am
Message modified by BamaCoug on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:12:35am
Message modified by BamaCoug on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:20:29am
Message modified by BamaCoug on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:23:34am
Message modified by BamaCoug on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:24:58am
Message modified by BamaCoug on Jun 27, 2016 at 12:26:05am
BamaCoug
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