Jun 28, 2017
12:52:23pm
12:52:23pm
Surprised you took that from my post. Others have said BYU won't win 20, which i think is < 1% chance. My view is
similar to yours. As i have said several times, i think odds favor a significant improvement on the 22 win season. So 25 wins is a reasonable 50-50 baseline to me.
Pomeroy's adjusted PPP are almost precisely correlated to end of year rankings. Last year BYU finished #87 in the nation on both offense and defense and #80 in team ranking.
As i said, the offense, which is all CB really seems to care about despite occasional lip service to defense, should improve by a lot, guessing #25 at the moment. OTOH, my expectations for the defense is not so good and they will be doing well to finish in the top 100, IMO. That could be enough to rank them #50 overall, give or take 10 spots.
If the defense improves significantly to say top 40? BYU will make the NCAA tourney regardless of where they finish in the WCC or their win total.
What you took as my question was rather the low end of pessimist range that i have seen posted; it no way represents a significant possibility in my mind.
Pomeroy's adjusted PPP are almost precisely correlated to end of year rankings. Last year BYU finished #87 in the nation on both offense and defense and #80 in team ranking.
As i said, the offense, which is all CB really seems to care about despite occasional lip service to defense, should improve by a lot, guessing #25 at the moment. OTOH, my expectations for the defense is not so good and they will be doing well to finish in the top 100, IMO. That could be enough to rank them #50 overall, give or take 10 spots.
If the defense improves significantly to say top 40? BYU will make the NCAA tourney regardless of where they finish in the WCC or their win total.
What you took as my question was rather the low end of pessimist range that i have seen posted; it no way represents a significant possibility in my mind.
Originally posted on Jun 28, 2017 at 12:52:23pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Jun 28, 2017 at 1:30:56pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Jun 28, 2017 at 1:32:01pm
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6/27/17 9:19pm
6/27/17 9:28pm
6/27/17 9:39pm
TJ is way more athletic and has way more upside than his brother, but listening to most on here you'd never know it.
6/27/17 11:27pm
6/28/17 6:38am
6/28/17 8:19am
6/28/17 9:49am
6/28/17 3:09pm
6/27/17 11:43pm
6/28/17 1:24am
6/28/17 9:48am
You have to project BYU at #3, given that SMC and Zags are projected to be top 20 teams. Cougs can still be improved.
6/28/17 10:07am
6/28/17 11:39am
6/28/17 12:05pm